Tropical Cyclone Jasper formed over the Coral Sea near the Solomon Islands on Monday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 9.6°S and longitude 156.6°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) west of Honiara, Guadacanal. Jasper was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea near the Solomon Islands strengthened during Monday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Jasper. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jasper was organizing rapidly. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern side of Jasper’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are ridge weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Jasper will intensify during the next 36 hours. Jasper will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could intensify rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develop.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Jasper will move away from the Solomon Islands. Tropical Cyclone Jasper will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain in the Solomon Islands until it moves away. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could approach the coast of Queensland, Australia in a few days.